Orioles 2026 Win Distribution

How did the model do?

On Opening Day, our model ran 10,000 simulated seasons and projected the Orioles to finish with a median of 81 wins. The 90% confidence interval put them anywhere between 73 and 89 wins, with the middle half of simulations falling between 76 and 85 wins. Baltimore finished the season with 79 wins, landing within two wins of the Opening Day median and squarely inside the projected range.