Why I Built This

I grew up going to Orioles games at Camden Yards with my Dad. He went to the very first game there in '92, and helped me develop my own love for the team and the game. I have vivid memories of eating peanuts along the first-base line in all kinds of weather: snow in April, blazing heat in August. Those experiences shaped the way I watch baseball to this day.

Professionally, I work in data science and engineering. When I started looking for deep, data-driven analysis from an Orioles perspective, it wasn't really out there. We're a small-market team that usually gets overshadowed by the larger media markets. The national sites cover all 30 teams, and Baltimore gets a paragraph.

So I built Birdland Metrics, an Orioles-first analytics site, from a fan who grew up in the stands and now works with data for a living.

The Models and Projections

Birdland Metrics currently runs two projection systems. The team model uses an Elo rating system built on 230,000+ games dating back to 1871, enhanced with starting pitcher adjustments, injury tracking, and preseason roster projections. Every day, it simulates the full season 10,000 times to produce playoff odds, win projections, and division standings. The player model blends Marcel-style historical weighting with Statcast data, age curves, and in-season updates to project individual performance for key Orioles. Beyond the projections, you'll find player deep dives, Statcast analysis, data visualizations, and a weekly newsletter throughout the season.

If you want the full technical breakdown, read the team model methodology or the player projection explainer.

The Tech Stack

The site is built on a popular Angular javascript framework, which fetches data from our Contentful content API and renders customized d3.js visualizations. The backend is powered by cloud functions and infrastructure built on Amazon Web Services. Most data pipeline and engineering work is written in python.

What's Next

This is just the beginning. The projections update daily throughout the season, and I'll be publishing new analysis weekly as the data tells interesting stories. There's a lot more I want to build here, but for now, the best way to stay in the loop is to subscribe to the newsletter.

Get In Touch

Have questions, feedback, or just want to talk Orioles? Reach out via the contact page, submit a question to our monthly mailbag, or find me on Bluesky and X.