BIRDLANDMETRICS
Eight of 15 AL teams sit within two wins of each other through 42 games, the third-tightest early-season logjam in 50 years. Here's what history says happens next.
May 13 6 min read 
Welcome to the first mailbag of the 2026 season. We tackle questions about Dylan Beavers' disappearing walks, the Orioles' one- and two-strike approach, infielders playing the outfield, and why our model differs from FanGraphs.
Apr 24 21 min read 
The 2025 Orioles lost 87 games. They were buried by April and cooked by May. The real story wasn't the blown leads, it was the games that were over before they started. Will the 2026 Orioles be different?
Apr 16 8m 
A plain-English guide to every stat on the Birdland Metrics Core Player Benchmarks dashboard, from xWOBA and barrel rate to FIP and K/9. Plus, how our Marcel + Statcast projection model works and when you're actually allowed to panic.
Apr 2 7 min read 
Weekly Orioles playoff projection updates powered by ELO modeling: tracking Baltimore's odds, division standings, and wild card race throughout the 2026 season.
Apr 2 62 min read 
Shane Baz posted a 4.87 ERA in 2025 but his 3.95 SIERA, career-high ground ball rate, and elite pitch tunneling tell a different story. Why the Orioles bet $68 million on the gap between his results and his stuff.
Our model simulates 10,000 seasons daily to project the 2026 Orioles at 81 wins and a 32% playoff chance. Here's what could push them higher and what to watch as the season unfolds.
Mar 25 5 min read 
Gunnar Henderson hit 37 homers in 2024 and only 17 in 2025. Our analysis breaks down what went wrong, what the shoulder injury explains, and what to expect in 2026.
Mar 18 11 min read 
How to separate signal from noise when evaluating baseball performance, using FanGraphs regression methodology and Statcast stabilization research.
Mar 10 5 min read 
Adley Rutschman hit .220 in 2025, but the data says a bounce-back is coming. We break down what's real, what's noise, and what Orioles fans should expect in 2026.
Mar 10 11 min read 
How we project Orioles player stats: Marcel baselines, Statcast adjustments, age curves, and in-season blending — plus backtest results and limitations.
Mar 2 18 min read 
Daily win projections for all five AL East teams from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Track how standings and playoff odds shift all season.
Feb 25 11 min read Subscribe to Birdland Metrics and get projections, analysis, and insights delivered to your inbox.