BIRDLANDMETRICS
A plain-English guide to every stat on the Birdland Metrics Core Player Benchmarks dashboard, from xWOBA and barrel rate to FIP and K/9. Plus, how our Marcel + Statcast projection model works and when you're actually allowed to panic.
Weekly Orioles playoff projection updates powered by ELO modeling: tracking Baltimore's odds, division standings, and wild card race throughout the 2026 season.
Shane Baz posted a 4.87 ERA in 2025 but his 3.95 SIERA, career-high ground ball rate, and elite pitch tunneling tell a different story. Why the Orioles bet $68 million on the gap between his results and his stuff.
Our model simulates 10,000 seasons daily to project the 2026 Orioles at 81 wins and a 32% playoff chance. Here's what could push them higher and what to watch as the season unfolds.
Gunnar Henderson hit 37 homers in 2024 and only 17 in 2025. Our analysis breaks down what went wrong, what the shoulder injury explains, and what to expect in 2026.
How to separate signal from noise when evaluating baseball performance, using FanGraphs regression methodology and Statcast stabilization research.
Adley Rutschman hit .220 in 2025, but the data says a bounce-back is coming. We break down what's real, what's noise, and what Orioles fans should expect in 2026.
How we project Orioles player stats: Marcel baselines, Statcast adjustments, age curves, and in-season blending — plus backtest results and limitations.
Daily win projections for all five AL East teams from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Track how standings and playoff odds shift all season.
Our model says Yankees 88, Orioles 81. FanGraphs says Yankees 87, Orioles 84. Both are right — they're just answering different questions.
The Orioles had a productive offseason by every measure — but the gap between track record and projection tells a nuanced story about the roster's risk.
A full breakdown of the ELO projection model behind our Orioles playoff odds, win totals, and division standings — methodology, results, and limitations.
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