The Orioles' Playoff Outlook: 25 Games to Go

With 25 games left in the 2026 season, the Orioles sit at 68–69 and are still in contention for the final wildcard spot. For a team that's been under .500 for most of the season, this may be surprising to some. But, if you've been following the standings this year, you already know how bad the American League has been as a whole. The Orioles have played pretty mediocre baseball through 137 games, but they've been given an opportunity to "right the ship" here in the remaining weeks of the season.

Coming off of a recent sweep of the Athletics over the weekend, and winning their last 7 of 10 games, their playoff odds have increased quite a bit since the middle part of the month. After being badly swept by the Yankees in three games at home, their odds were down to 7.8% on the morning of August 21st. But, a big series win against the AL-leading Rays, and then two successive series wins (and one sweep) against lesser teams have kept the window open. Here's what our model is showing and what it means for the rest of the season.

What the Playoff Odds Actually Mean

Our model runs 10,000 simulated versions of the remaining schedule every morning, using Elo ratings and FIP-adjusted pitcher probabilities to play out each game (among other things). The full explainer can be found here. Right now, Baltimore makes the playoffs in about 2,740 of those 10,000 simulations, or a 27.4% shot.

That's a real chance, but it reflects a tough reality: the Orioles need a lot to go right. And, more importantly, they need to play consistently good baseball down the stretch in order to make it happen. Something they've struggled to do all season.

The cutline projection on our schedule leverage page takes the median end-of-season win total from those same 10,000 simulations, the middle outcome, and checks whether Baltimore finishes above or below the WC3 line. The median has Baltimore at 81 projected wins as of this morning, one behind Cleveland's 82, which currently sits at the cutline. So the model has them just below the line in the most likely scenario, in a four-team race for one effective playoff spot:

One game separates four teams in the projection. That's why the odds are what they are, it's not that the model has given up on Baltimore, it's that the margin is razor-thin and variance is high this late in the season.

You can see the full distribution of this morning's projected win totals across all 10,000 simulations at the link below, Baltimore's range currently runs between 77 and 85 wins with the bulk landing right around 81:

→ View Win Distribution

The Remaining Schedule

Of Baltimore's 25 remaining games, 19 are against teams already in or actively competing for the playoffs:

The Boston series starting September 3rd is the single highest-leverage series remaining, a 4-game home set against a 98.6%-odds playoff team. A sweep in either direction could swing Baltimore's playoff odds by a large margin.

Colorado (Aug 31–Sep 2): The Warmup That Matters

This week's trip to Coors Field might look like a cake-walk, but they really do need to be careful not to drop the ball. After the Athletics sweep, Baltimore's odds are alive enough that nothing is low-stakes anymore. The good news: they're facing one of the worst rotations in baseball.

The model's expectation: 2-1 Baltimore. The win probability is 58–60% per game, the Orioles are meaningful favorites across all three. A sweep would be ideal; 2-1 is the floor the model expects.

If They Go 2-1 in Colorado: The Math

At 2-1, Baltimore is 70–70 with 22 games remaining.

Pending the Guardians projected win total remains constant (which it may not), to match Cleveland's projected cutline of 82 wins, the O's would need to go 12-10 over those 22 games, a .545 winning percentage. That's really not too unrealistic, it's just asking this team to be slightly above average. However, when you look at the opponents, a 12-10 record looks a little more difficult against a schedule that includes a lot of playoff-caliber opponents.

Here's what one 12-10 scenario looks like series by series:

Go .500 or better in almost every series and they're there. But, the margin is thin enough that one or two bad series, especially against a direct competitor like the Blue Jays or Guardians could end the run.

Boston (Sep 3–6): The Season Comes Home

This is a big series. The O's have four games at Camden Yards immediately after a 9-game west-coast road trip (with no off day). Not to mention, the Red Sox rotation is quite stellar. Our model puts the playoff odds swing for this series at around 24 percentage points.

Given a lot of these factors, the Orioles are a slight underdog right now when examining the probable pitchers and Elo. The model's most likely outcome is a 2-2 split, but the distribution is wide enough that either extreme is very much in play.

What each outcome means for the playoff race:

• Win the series (3-1 or 4-0): odds likely will jump to above 35% and the O's are suddenly very viable heading into the Cleveland week

• Split (2-2): odds hold around 27–29%, meaning the O's are alive but still need a strong finish

• Lose the series (1-3 or 0-4): odds crash back to below 15%, which would make it tough for the O's to climb back into it unless other teams around them in the race falter or they go on an unexpected run later in the month against some very good competition

The Bottom Line

Our Birdland Metrics model still is finding a lot of plausible ways the Orioles make the playoffs this year. But they need to keep winning and they need other teams like the Guardians, Jays, and Rangers to stay around .500 ball the rest of the way.

First and foremost, they need to go 2-1 or better in Colorado, then come home and split or take the Boston series. If they do both of those things, Baltimore's odds could be pushing above 35-40% heading into the September 7th Cleveland series. If so, the final three weeks look very different.

The question is, as it's been all year, what team is going to show up over these final 25 games?

Check the Schedule Leverage page daily as the picture sharpens — with 25 games left, each series moves the needle fast.