BIRDLANDMETRICS
With 25 games left and a 27.4% playoff shot, here's what our model says about Baltimore's path and what the Colorado and Boston series mean for the rest of September.
Aug 31 7 min read 
The Orioles went to Tampa Bay with 8.8% playoff odds and swept three of four from the hottest team in baseball. The data shows what actually changed, specifically in two-strike counts.
Aug 18 6 min read 
August 9 vs Texas showed something the Orioles haven't displayed in months: positive RE24 in eight of nine innings, combining a top-5 total value with the most balanced inning distribution of any high-output game this season.
Aug 10 5 min read 
The Orioles are 2 games out of a Wild Card spot with 94 left to play. The next month will determine whether the 7-year rebuild window is still open, or whether it closed when no one was looking.
Jun 10 11 min read 
Eight of 15 AL teams sit within two wins of each other through 42 games, the third-tightest early-season logjam in 50 years. Here's what history says happens next.
May 13 6 min read 
The 2025 Orioles lost 87 games. They were buried by April and cooked by May. The real story wasn't the blown leads, it was the games that were over before they started. Will the 2026 Orioles be different?
Apr 16 8m 
Our model says Yankees 88, Orioles 81. FanGraphs says Yankees 87, Orioles 84. Both are right — they're just answering different questions.
Feb 24 11 min read 
The Orioles had a productive offseason by every measure — but the gap between track record and projection tells a nuanced story about the roster's risk.
Feb 14 7 min read Subscribe to Birdland Metrics and get projections, analysis, and insights delivered to your inbox.